2024 Election results fivethirtyeight - An interactive electoral map derived from FiveThirtyEight's probabilistic model for the 2020 presidential election. Search our Site: Search for Your Local Elected Officials: ... General Election Polls 2024 Republican Primary Latest Republican Primary Polls 2024 Democratic Primary 2020 Presidential Election Results Historical Elections.

 
Fivethirtyeight 2016 Poll Data Description. Poll results from US 2016 presidential elections aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms, and news reports. The dataset also includes election results (popular vote) and electoral college votes in results_us_election_2016. Usage polls_us_election_2016 Format. Election results fivethirtyeight

Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.UPDATE (Nov. 18, 2022, 4:21 p.m.): On Friday, Adam Frisch conceded the race in Colorado’s 3rd District to Rep. Lauren Boebert. Though she leads by just 0.16 per…In 2018, there were elections in 49 of the 100 largest cities in the country, including elections for 25 mayoral offices. However, sometimes local elections without state or national significance don’t make it into the news.Breaking news and analysis on U.S. politics, including the latest coverage of the White House, Congress, the Supreme Court and more.Live coverage and results of the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election. Voters in the state will decide whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom and — if removed — whom to replace him with.Polls ending yesterday. President: Republican primary, South Carolina, 2024. AVG. Dec. 6, 2023. Joe Biden Approval. AVG. Asa Hutchinson Favorability among Republicans. AVG. Chris Christie...By Geoffrey Skelley and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Filed under 2023 Election. Mar. 16, 2023.FiveThirtyEight, 2020 election: Live results and coverage, Nov. 4, 2020 PolitiFact, No, Biden did not receive thousands of mysteriously surfaced votes in Michigan , Nov. 4, 2020 Statement from ...On Monday, the fivethirtyeight.com average for Iowa put Trump at 45.9%, ahead of DeSantis on 19.7% and Haley on 17.5%. ... Despite his attempt to overturn the last election, ...We don’t even know every result of 2022 yet, but the 2024 election has already begun. On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump announced that he would seek a second nonconsecutive term as ...Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.But Only 28 Percent Of General-Election Candidates FiveThirtyEight. October 26, 2018 11:33 AM What If Only Men Voted? Only Women? Only Nonwhite Voters? FiveThirtyEight. June 15, 2022 6:00 AMHowever, the two states showed opposite results: The use of any machine voting in a county was associated with a 5.6-percentage-point reduction in Democratic two-party vote share in Wisconsin but ...The Republican Party currently controls the U.S. House, where 218 seats are needed for a majority (when there are no vacancies). This 3-part map lets you view the current composition of the U.S. House and make a …Sarah Frostenson. Jan. 7, 12:15 am. That’s It For Tonight. It is hard to find words to describe the events of today, but after a violent mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol earlier today,...Live results and coverage of the 2022 Midterm elections, including the latest updates on the race for control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well analysis on races for ...FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.But Only 28 Percent Of General-Election Candidates FiveThirtyEight. October 26, 2018 11:33 AM What If Only Men Voted? Only Women? Only Nonwhite Voters? FiveThirtyEight. June 15, 2022 6:00 AMDownload. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown.Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Take the FiveThirtyEight polling average on March 1, 2020. It showed Biden up by 4.1 percentage points nationally , very close to his eventual 4.5-point popular vote margin.In the 2018 elections, this produced better results in some cases (e.g., SurveyUSA) than in others (e.g., Rasmussen Reports). ... Weighted-average statistical bias of polls in final 21 days of the ...FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.1Methods. Toggle Methods subsection. 1.1Transparency of pollster ratings. 2History. Toggle History subsection. 2.1Final projections of 2008 elections.*Special election. Results for 2020 runoffs are unofficial and collected as of 10:45 a.m. on Jan. 7. Georgia rules require a candidate to win a majority of the vote in general elections or special ...Sep 20, 2023 · And according to Daily Kos Elections (albeit using a different methodology), the correlation between special-election results and the House popular vote has been strong since at least the 1989-90 ... Results will begin coming in at 6 p.m. Eastern as the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, but the pace will really pick up with a slew of closings at 7 and 8. By 9 p.m., the polls will have ...Nov 1, 2021 · Headed into the election, Biden’s approval rating sits at about 43 percent and his disapproval rating at about 51 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker. 3 It ... Breaking news and analysis on U.S. politics, including the latest coverage of the White House, Congress, the Supreme Court and more.FiveThirtyEight also took a look at absentee-by-mail ballots in the 9th District and found that the absentee statistics and the election results do imply that something unusual happened in ...FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a district votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent ...FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. ... 2018 Election We have 360 articles about the 2018 election.Trump approval. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 1 44.3 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.4 percent disapprove (a net ...Nov 23, 2016 · However, the two states showed opposite results: The use of any machine voting in a county was associated with a 5.6-percentage-point reduction in Democratic two-party vote share in Wisconsin but ... Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .Predicted range of electoral college votes (270 to win) Joe Biden. Democrat. better than 19 in 20. or 97%. better than 19 in 20. or >99%. 259 - 415. Donald Trump.Headed into the election, Biden’s approval rating sits at about 43 percent and his disapproval rating at about 51 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker. 3 It ...Oct 31, 2020 · Bolded rows indicate competitive races. The earliest that TV networks, the Associated Press and other election adjudicators will be able to project the winner in any state is 7 p.m. Eastern, when ... Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. April 1, 2023 July 1 Oct. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. 30, 2023 leader Nov. 30, 2023 leader Trump Trump 60.0%. KEY. ESTIMATE.Coming into the election, FiveThirtyEight put together benchmark margins in all 133 of Virginia’s counties and independent ... as they led 51 seats to 49 seats in still-to-be-finalized results. ...By Nathaniel Rakich and Alex Samuels. Filed under 2022 Election. Apr. 28, 2022.Aug. 22, 2022, at 6:00 AM. For the third election in a row, longtime Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney, pictured here with her daughter, is facing a serious primary challenge. Mary Altaffer / AP ...Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.With 218 seats required for control, FiveThirtyEight predicts 214 of those are at least likely to vote Republican, compared to 189 at least likely to go Democrat. Of the remaining 32 races, four ...Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia - ABC News. —Leah Askarinam, 538. Nov 07, 7:23 PM EST. Earliest Kentucky results suggest slight Democratic improvement. To follow up on Geoffrey's latest Kentucky post, we now have 95 percent of the expected vote in from Pendleton County, and 93 …Download the data. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is …Nov 3, 2020 · Live election results and coverage of the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and the race for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. May 15, 2023 · By Geoffrey Skelley and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Filed under 2023 Election. Mar. 16, 2023. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. April 1, 2023 July 1 Oct. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. 30, 2023 leader Nov. 30, 2023 leader Trump Trump 60.0%. KEY. ESTIMATE.Polls tracked by analysis website FiveThirtyEight show Biden's approval ratings hit an all-time low. Just over 37 percent of voters approve of his leadership since he was elected to the White ...avg. Indicates a polling average for this poll type. Candidate is an incumbent. Partisan types.Dec 12, 2022 · Washington DC, December 12, 2022 -- The post-election (and final) wave of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking poll finds that a plurality of Americans is surprised by the results of the midterms but that the results are largely trusted. Looking ahead to the 118 th Congress, a bipartisan majority of Americans believe curbing inflation ... 538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by …FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. ... 2018 Election We have 360 articles about the 2018 election.FiveThirtyEight has 30 repositories available. ... Use saved searches to filter your results more quickly. Name. Query. To see all available qualifiers, see our documentation. Cancel Create saved search Sign in ... election-results Public 20 12 1 0 Updated Nov 13, 2023.Apr 21, 2023 · Nate Silver@natesilver538. Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t ... As a result, Ganim’s win could be moot — unless he wins the redone Democratic primary, in which case this general-election result would stand. —Nathaniel Rakich, 538 Nov 7, 11:55 PMDownload the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.The US Senate is part of the elected law-making body of America. Together with the lower house, the House of Representatives, the Senate is part of the US Congress. As the upper chamber in the lawmaking arrangement, the Senate is of particu...Scientific polling consists of surveying a random sample of the population in order to obtain statistically significant results for an upcoming vote or election. Scientific polls are frequently used before a big election for countries or st...Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.The FiveThirtyEight politics team chats about the hottest Senate races of 2024. ... a vocal denier of the 2020 election results, ... Nathaniel Rakich is a senior editor and senior elections ...Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. ... The reason for that is 1) the 2022 election results being disastrous for Republicans, 2) the 2023 special election results giving a 6% win to Democrats, and 3) less Muslim vote in Pennsylvania than Michigan, but still a ton of ...New Jersey results are giving off mixed signals. Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on ...AUSTIN, Texas—No, Galen Druke can’t simply gaze into a crystal ball to announce who will win the 2024 presidential election. But what the FiveThirtyEight host and podcaster can do is use data to give context to what may happen in what’s shaping up to be a particularly contentious campaign season.. Speaking at the NCSL Forecast ’24 …Nov 3, 2022 · So what would the election results look like if Democrats did 5.4 points better than the FiveThirtyEight forecast currently predicts in every Senate race and 6.3 points better in every House race? Download the data. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is …Jul 31, 2023 · FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. ... 2020 Election We have 1214 articles about the 2020 election. Live results and coverage of the June 14, 2022 Republican and Democratic primary elections in South Carolina, Nevada, Maine and North Dakota, including several key races for Senate, House ...Nov 8, 2022 · The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 ... Aug. 22, 2022, at 6:00 AM. For the third election in a row, longtime Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney, pictured here with her daughter, is facing a serious primary challenge. Mary Altaffer / AP ...Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi. The 2023 elections were good for Democrats | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least ...And according to Daily Kos Elections (albeit using a different methodology), the correlation between special-election results and the House popular vote has been strong since at least the 1989-90 ..."> 3 And in the chart below, I’ve broken these forecasts down into four different categories: toss-up (where the leader had between a 50 and 60 percent chance of winning); lean (a 60 to 75 percent...With 218 seats required for control, FiveThirtyEight predicts 214 of those are at least likely to vote Republican, compared to 189 at least likely to go Democrat. Of the remaining 32 races, four ...FiveThirtyEight underestimated Donald Trump’s vote shares by state to a modest but statistically significant extent. We further consider how the polls performed when the more primitive aggregator Real Clear Politics combined their results, and then how well single statewide polls performed without aggregation. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .Election results fivethirtyeight

Nov 19, 2023 · Latest Polls. Check out our popular polling averages. Who’s Ahead In Republican Primary Polls? National polling average. Who’s Ahead in Iowa Republican Primary Polls? State polling average. How... . Election results fivethirtyeight

election results fivethirtyeight

Nov 10, 2022 · Filed under 2022 Election. Published Nov. 10, 2022. While many Republican candidates who have denied the 2020 election results won their midterm races, some newcomers who focused their campaigns ... Of these 15 states, 11 4 also broke down the results of the 2016 presidential election by voting method. ... Nathaniel Rakich is a senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Who will win the last big election of 2023? Dec 07. Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images, FILE. How popular is Joe Biden? Updated Dec. 4, 2023. 40 50 60% Disapprove 55.4% Approve 37.9% See all approval polls. Who won the fourth Republican debate? 538 partnered with The Washington Post and Ipsos to poll Republican voters.Sep 13, 2021 · Live coverage and results of the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election. Voters in the state will decide whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom and — if removed — whom to replace him with. 8 p.m. Eastern. Races to watch. Senate. Timing of results. Should be pretty fast. A relatively small percentage of people are voting by mail in Alabama, which should help in getting results...Jan 25, 2023 · Here Are The Races To Watch. | FiveThirtyEight. 2023 Election. Yes, 2023 Is An Election Year. Here Are The Races To Watch. By Geoffrey Skelley. Jan. 25, 2023, at 6:00 AM. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY ... Our average gave Democrats an 8.7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8.6 points. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in common with 2018 than 2020 ...Add Favorite Race. President of the United States. Show Map Show Chart. Precincts Reporting100%. Percentage. Votes. NP. Donald J. Trump (I) (Rep). 69.77%.Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Statistical model by G. Elliott Morris.1 In FiveThirtyEight’s nine swing states most likely to “tip” the election, the median weight it accorded to polls in its final 2020 forecast was 97%. 2 FiveThirtyEight’s modeling allows for correlated forecasts across states, but it does not disclose how, and our own approach to correlation is probably different.Results in districts where both candidates had less than a 60 percent chance of winning, according to the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s final preelection forecast, as of 7:04 p.m. Eastern raceApr 21, 2023 · Nate Silver@natesilver538. Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t ... Indeed, the special election results so far this year are merely another indication of the GOP’s precarious position. President Trump’s approval rating is below 40 percent and Democrats hold ...Nov 8, 2022 · GOP chances of winning competitive Senate races on June 30 and in the final FiveThirtyEight Deluxe forecast. In every state, the numbers are nearly identical. Of course, that doesn’t mean the ... Recounts typically don’t swing enough votes to change the winner. Out of 4,687 statewide general elections between 2000 and 2015, just 27 were followed by recounts, according to data compiled by ...ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data ...The "Election Timeline" will launch on Monday, Nov. 7, and will keep audiences informed on when to expect election results in every state. On Election Day itself, FiveThirtyEight will have its election night live blog, which will go live in the morning, featuring preliminary analysis and coverage of any voting access issues. As results …Collectively, U.S. House candidates raised more money by Aug. 27 than House candidates raised during the entire 2014 midterm election cycle, and Senate candidates weren’t far behind. Ad volumes ...Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.UPDATE (Nov. 18, 2022, 4:21 p.m.): On Friday, Adam Frisch conceded the race in Colorado’s 3rd District to Rep. Lauren Boebert. Though she leads by just 0.16 per…By Nate Silver. Nov. 8, 2022, at 2:20 AM. ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 percent chance of taking over the...Nov 8, 2022 · Live results and coverage of the 2022 Midterm elections, including the latest updates on the race for control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well analysis on races for ... The secretary of state’s office told FiveThirtyEight that results will start coming in around 9 p.m. Eastern and be nearly complete around 11:30 p.m. Eastern. Races to Watch. None. Share of...Nov 8, 2022 · The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 ... Aug. 22, 2022, at 6:00 AM. For the third election in a row, longtime Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney, pictured here with her daughter, is facing a serious primary challenge. Mary Altaffer / AP ...Recounts typically don’t swing enough votes to change the winner. Out of 4,687 statewide general elections between 2000 and 2015, just 27 were followed by recounts, according to data compiled by ...FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. ... 2020 Election We have 1214 articles about the 2020 election.Polls ending yesterday. President: Republican primary, South Carolina, 2024. AVG. Dec. 6, 2023. Joe Biden Approval. AVG. Asa Hutchinson Favorability among Republicans. AVG. Chris Christie...Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.According to state election officials, about 90 percent of all votes will be announced immediately after polls close — speed made possible by the fact that ballots are due by Nov. 3 at the latest and can be processed as soon as they arrive. A second batch of ballots is scheduled to be released at 3 a.m. Eastern.Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Coming into the election, FiveThirtyEight put together benchmark margins in all 133 of Virginia’s counties and independent ... as they led 51 seats to 49 seats in still-to-be-finalized results. ...8 p.m. Eastern. Races to watch. Senate. Timing of results. Should be pretty fast. A relatively small percentage of people are voting by mail in Alabama, which should help in getting results...FiveThirtyEight will be covering these races tomorrow night, focusing primarily on Wisconsin’s judicial election and the Chicago mayoral contest. Nathaniel Rakich will have a much more in-depth ...FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. ... 2018 Election We have 360 articles about the 2018 election.Polls ending yesterday. President: Republican primary, South Carolina, 2024. AVG. Dec. 6, 2023. Joe Biden Approval. AVG. Asa Hutchinson Favorability among Republicans. AVG. Chris Christie...The effects of the French Revolution had a major impact on France and Europe, which influenced and transformed these countries. About.com explains that the effects of the French Revolution resulted in an established democratic institution, ...An interactive electoral map derived from FiveThirtyEight's probabilistic model for the 2020 presidential election. Search our Site: Search for Your Local Elected Officials: ... General Election Polls 2024 Republican Primary Latest Republican Primary Polls 2024 Democratic Primary 2020 Presidential Election Results Historical Elections.Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Dec 12, 2022 · Washington DC, December 12, 2022 -- The post-election (and final) wave of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking poll finds that a plurality of Americans is surprised by the results of the midterms but that the results are largely trusted. Looking ahead to the 118 th Congress, a bipartisan majority of Americans believe curbing inflation ... Nov 8, 2022 · Live results and coverage of the 2022 Midterm elections, including the latest updates on the race for control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well analysis on races for ... So what would the election results look like if Democrats did 5.4 points better than the FiveThirtyEight forecast currently predicts in every Senate race and 6.3 points better in every House race?Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.By 538 and ABC News. Last Updated: November 8, 2023, 1:17 AM ET. 25:36. The 2023 elections were good for Democrats | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. The crew unpacks the results from election night 2023 and looks ahead to 2024. ABCNews.com.Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Jun 30, 2022 · FiveThirtyEight partisan lean, which is based on how a district voted in the past two presidential elections and (in a new twist) state legislative elections. In our partisan lean formula, 50 ... FiveThirtyEight will be covering these races tomorrow night, focusing primarily on Wisconsin’s judicial election and the Chicago mayoral contest. Nathaniel Rakich will have a much more in-depth ...By Nathaniel Rakich and Alex Samuels. Filed under 2022 Election. Apr. 28, 2022.Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Nov 16, 2022 · Results in districts where both candidates had less than a 60 percent chance of winning, according to the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s final preelection forecast, as of 7:04 p.m. Eastern race Representatives to the U.S. House of Representatives are elected every two years. This means that all representative seats are up for election at the same time, both in the years of presidential elections and in the midterm election years.Nov 8, 2023 · Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi. The 2023 elections were good for Democrats | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least ... His exact role in instigating the attack and a broader effort to overturn results of the 2020 election, which he lost, resulted in two criminal indictments. He faces two others, totalling 91 felonies.Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast . Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning.Nov 1, 2021 · Headed into the election, Biden’s approval rating sits at about 43 percent and his disapproval rating at about 51 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker. 3 It ... The average difference between how a district voted in the past two presidential elections and how the country voted overall, with 2016 results weighted 75 percent and 2012 results weighted 25 ...FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.Jan 5, 2021 · Live election results and coverage of the two Georgia Senate runoffs, and Congress's vote to certify each state’s electoral votes in the 2020 presidential contest. . Becuncensored only fans